On June 9, 2010, Minnesota Public Radio aired a story that examined the job market for new nurses in Minnesota and the impact of the recession on the number of readily available RN positions. Projections from Economic Modeling Specialists, Inc (EMSI) reported that Minnesota schools were producing more nurses than the state needs. EMSI also published information on its blog that RNs were being overproduced in all states except Nevada and Alaska. EMSI data were obtained through the Department of Education through the Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS). The Tri-Council for Nursing (American Association of Colleges of Nursing, National League for Nursing [NLN], American Nurses Association, and American Organization of Nurse Executives) soon issued a statement questioning these data. Nurse educators need to be aware of these concerns and able to reassure potential or current nursing students that nursing will continue to be a lucrative career choice.
The Tri-Council noted the following concerns on the NLN Web site:
1. IPEDS data used to determine supply included graduates from every type of nursing program: LPN, RN, to BSN, master's, doctoral, and certificate programs. These data do not reflect new RNs and should not be used to establish the total supply of RNs. Additionally, the Tri-Council notes that the University of Phoenix and Chamberlain College are included as top producers of RNs. As a point of clarification only 3% to 4% of the graduates from these programs are new RNs.
2. The EMSI included graduates from prenursing, health, medical preparatory programs, health services, and allied health programs. More than 2,000 LPNs were included as having graduated from nursing/RN programs.
3. The number of graduates passing the NCLEX in 2009 (147,812) is 43,000 less than the number of new nurses ready to practice as reported by EMSI (190,615). No mention was made of the fact that only nurses successfully passing the NCLEX are able to practice nursing.
4. EMSI data did not take into account the approximately 73,000 nurses currently leaving the workforce.
The Tri-Council added that healthcare was the only sector of the economy to maintain steady growth since the beginning of the recession in December 2007. The Bureau of Labor Statistics has identified registered nursing as the top profession for projected growth through 2018. Additionally, the Tri-Council cautions us to consider the retirements that are occurring and will continue to occur in nursing. Between 2004 and 2008, the nursing workforce grew only by 153,806 nurses. The gap between the supply of new RNs and retirements will continue.
The Tri-Council emphasized that decreasing the pipeline of future nurses may put the health of Americans at risk. Nursing programs and nurse educators are encouraged to work with officials representing their state workforce, state boards of nursing, employers, and other stakeholders to meet the demands for RNs by educating students with the needed skill mix.
Source: NLN. Joint statement from the Tri-Council for Nursing on recent registered nurse supply and demand projections. Tri-Council for Nursing. Available at http://www.nln.org/governmentaffairs/pdf/workforce_supply_statement_final.pdf. Accessed July 16, 2010.
Submitted by: Robin E. Pattillo, PhD, RN, CNL, News Editor at [email protected].