In a study published in the December 6, 2000, issue of the Journal of the American Medical Association, researchers predicted there will be a shortage of critical care and pulmonary specialists beginning in 2007. During the next 30 years, Medicare enrollment will grow by more than 50%.

Consequently, the study showed, critical care specialists' time will fall short of demand by 22% in 2020 and 35% in 2030; and pulmonologists' time will fall short of demand by 35% in 2020 and 46% in 2030. Possible solutions include changes in training and education and the development of alternative delivery models, all of which, the researchers warn, would require significant lead time.

Similarly concerned about the health needs of an aging population, trustees of the John A. Hartford Foundation approved awards totaling $6.6 million for the creation of five new "centers of geriatric nursing excellence." The centers will be based in schools or colleges of nursing at Oregon Health Sciences University, the University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences, the University of California at San Francisco, the University of Iowa, and the University of Pennsylvania. Over the next five years, each center will receive about $1.3 million. The funds will be used to train academicians, practitioners, and researchers who will work to enhance care of the elderly.